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USDA's NASS published its first survey-based soybean yield forecast for MY 2026/27 at 52.7 bu/acre, down 0.3 from the trend estimate. Harvested acreage was raised 1.4 million to 85.8 million acres, lifting production 44 million bushels to a record 4.52 billion bushels.
A record US crop with ending stocks of 320 million bushels is bearish for soybean prices, partly offset by a higher crush forecast that supports meal and oil demand.
ers.usda.govJun 16, 2026After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
