USDA's Economic Research Service released its 10-year projections, which cut long-term U.S. soybean and sorghum export prospects due to China's retaliatory tariffs. The report also flags uncertainty about China's corn supply and the effect of African swine fever on its feed demand.
Lower projected U.S. soybean and sorghum exports to China weigh on long-term demand expectations, while uncertainty over China's feed demand adds volatility to price outlooks.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.