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The USDA FAS attaché report forecasts Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop at 51 MMT, with crush at 40 MMT and soymeal exports at 27 MMT. Sunflowerseed output is seen slightly higher at 3.7 MMT.
The report assumes good weather and a return of soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn.
A recovery in Argentine soymeal exports to 27 MMT would add significant supply to world meal markets, which is bearish for meal prices, and the sunflower forecast bears on sunmeal supply.
fas.usda.govMay 1, 2024After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
