CBOT Market: Soybeans and corn close sharply higher on forecasts for lower-than-expected U.S. production and stocks

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2024Corn Production Pegged Higher, Soybeans Lower+3.5%
• Mar 8, 2023USDA Crop Production Report Out Today: Lower Soybean Ending Stocks and Higher Corn - Oklahoma Farm Report-1.7%
• Feb 27, 2025USDA Forecasts Tighter-Than-Expected Soybean Ending Stocks-2.6%
• Apr 10, 2025USDA Lowers Corn Ending Stocks More Than Expected, Providing Market Support+2.6%
• Apr 8, 2022PF Report Reaction: U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks higher than expected - Pro Farmer+2.2%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Apr 10, 2025USDA Lowers Corn Ending Stocks More Than Expected, Providing Market Support+3.1%
• Oct 12, 2023WASDE Reduces Corn and Soy Production More Than Expected-0.4%
• Sep 30, 2020Corn, soy, wheat surge on lower-than-expected U.S. grain stocks | Financial Post+1.5%
• Sep 30, 2024USDA Report Snapshot: Corn, soybean stocks lighter than expected - Pro Farmer+1.0%
• Dec 9, 2025USDA Lowers U.S. Corn Ending Stocks More Than Expected+0.1%

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2020Corn, soy, wheat surge on lower-than-expected U.S. grain stocks | Financial Post+2.5%
• Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-1.5%
• May 15, 2023USDA Ending Stocks Reveal Record Projections for Corn and Soybeans - ProAg-1.6%
• Aug 10, 2017USDA Forecasts Record-High Soybean Production in 2017-0.2%
• May 12, 2022Corn, Soybean Production Numbers as Expected in May USDA Report+5.9%