
The FAO-AMIS November monitor forecasts record world wheat stocks of 360.6 million tonnes and maize stocks of 328.8 million tonnes for 2026/27, while rice stocks fall to 216.5 million tonnes. Wheat trade for July 2026 to June 2027 is forecast at 193.2 million tonnes, below the previous season, due to Black Sea transport problems.
Ample wheat and maize stocks cushion El Niño weather risks and cap price gains, while tighter rice stocks and lower Black Sea wheat shipments point to firmer rice and some wheat export pricing.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.