
USDA's November 10 Crop Production report cuts the US corn yield forecast to 179.6 bushels per acre, down 1.6 from October, for a crop of 15.89 billion bushels. Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.57 billion bushels, and markets rallied on the corn cut.
The lower corn yield tightens US corn supplies and supports feed grain prices. Record soybean output is a partial offset that limits gains in soybean-based feed ingredients.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.