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Chicago wheat prices fell on Monday as traders weighed the possibility that talks in Abu Dhabi could lead to resumed Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea exports. Soybeans and corn edged higher ahead of Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand estimates.
Shipments through the Azov-Black Sea ports had been nearly halted since mid-August after attacks on vessels and terminals.
A resumption of Black Sea shipments could increase global wheat availability and pressure prices. Any de-escalation that restores export flows would also ease supply risks for importers.
brecorder.comReutersNov 9, 2026brecorder.comReutersNov 9, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
