Chicago December wheat fell 1.3% to $5.91¼ per bushel after President Trump said he expects Russia and Ukraine to reach a deal soon. The USDA also reported flash sales of 101,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations and 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27; corn and soybean futures rose 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine agreement eased perceived Black Sea supply risk, weighing on wheat prices. The reported export sales provided some support to corn and soybeans, though the article does not specify a lasting price effect.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.