Grain and oilseed futures fell during the week ending October 30, with December corn at $4.478 and soybeans down 34 cents to $12.223. The Brazilian real fell more than 10% after an unexpected presidential election result, and U.S. wheat contracts each lost about 20 cents.
A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, meal and corn cheaper on export markets, adding competition for US supplies and pressuring global feed prices. Lower US futures reflect this shift in trade flows.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, WHEAT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.