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Brazil's financial markets have sold off this year over investor concern about President Lula's spending plans and the viability of balancing public finances through higher taxes. The real is down nearly 10% against the dollar this year, third-worst among emerging market currencies, and the Bovespa index has fallen 8.6%.
The weak real is a persistent driver of cheaper Brazilian export offers for soybeans, meal and corn, which can cap global feed prices.
ft.comMichael Pooler, Beatriz Langella in São PauloJun 25, 2024After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
