Plunge in Brazil’s Real Shows Risk of Chasing Big Returns

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2024Why Brazil’s currency is plunging-0.5%
• Jun 7, 2018Brazil's Real Is in Free Fall - Bloomberg-2.8%
• Jun 30, 2026Brazilian Real: Rising rates signal currency risk – Commerzbank-0.6%
• Oct 19, 2021Brazil's real slumps on fiscal concerns, Petrobras slides+1.4%
• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging-0.0%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Feb 27, 2021Commodity returns plunge the most in months amid stronger dollar+2.1%
• Oct 8, 2018Brazil's real, stocks rally on Bolsonaro win-0.2%
• Mar 5, 2020Brazilian Real (BRL USD) Plunges to Record Low as Rate Cut Seen - Bloomberg-3.4%
• Jun 25, 2024Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets-1.3%
• Jan 20, 2023Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence | Financial Post+0.6%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2024Why Brazil’s currency is plunging+2.0%
• Feb 27, 2021Commodity returns plunge the most in months amid stronger dollar+0.6%
• Jun 26, 2017Slumping Commodity Prices Pressure the Brazilian Real in 2Q17+3.2%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-1.2%
• Aug 5, 2024Brazilian real depreciation stirs economic concerns-1.7%