Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jan 21, 2021Brazilian real drops as fiscal worries overshadow central bank optimism | Financial Post+1.5%
• Jan 29, 2021Brazil's real lags Latam FX on a barrage of weak data | Financial Post+0.5%
• Jul 23, 2020Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high | Financial Post+1.0%
• Jun 7, 2022Brazilian real hits 2-week low, Chilean peso slips before rate move | Financial Post+6.3%
• Nov 17, 2022Brazil's real, stocks slide after budget proposal; other EM currencies weak | Financial Post+0.7%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+11.3%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-0.4%
• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging+1.1%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings+1.7%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+7.6%
• Jun 27, 2019Brazilian real falls on economy worries, dollar lifts other Latam forex - Pension Policy International-1.0%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-2.5%
• Aug 15, 2022Soy dives on China's economic uncertainty | Financial Post-10.8%
• Mar 6, 2026China’s yuan set to end longest weekly rally since 2012 on Middle East turmoil | Reuters+4.2%