Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank FX, bond intervention fails to prevent market rout+1.1%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-1.8%
• Mar 3, 2021Brazil real slumps to three-month low as central bank intervenes selling $2bn - Markets - Business Recorder+1.7%
• Jan 21, 2021Brazilian real drops as fiscal worries overshadow central bank optimism | Financial Post+1.5%
• Aug 16, 2022Brazil's real slumps 1% as presidential campaigns begin | Financial Post+1.7%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday-2.2%
• Jan 20, 2023Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence | Financial Post+0.6%
• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+2.7%
• Nov 26, 2019EMERGING MARKETS-Brazilian c.bank intervenes as real slumps; Colombian peso drops on tax reform-2.4%
• Mar 9, 2020Corn, soybeans, wheat drop about 2% as global markets recoil | Financial Post-4.1%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-2.6%
• Jan 20, 2023Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence | Financial Post+0.6%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Dec 17, 2024USD/BRL: Brazilian Real, Stocks and Bonds Plummet as Panic Sweeps Markets - Bloomberg+0.7%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank+3.2%