Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 5, 2022Brazil's real down 2% as central bank strikes cautious note; Stocks reverse course | Reuters+2.2%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+1.1%
• May 24, 2023Lula’s Feud with Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rates Dilemma to Global Stage+3.1%
• Jul 29, 2024Economic uncertainties still prevent rate cut in Brazil, official says | Reuters+1.4%
• Jan 21, 2021Brazilian real drops as fiscal worries overshadow central bank optimism | Financial Post+1.5%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+7.6%
• May 24, 2018Most FOMC participants say they may raise rates ‘soon’, minutes show - Central Banking-2.0%
• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday-2.2%
• Jul 11, 2024Asian FX bears ease as U.S. rate cut bets solidify: Reuters poll-3.9%
• Mar 5, 2020Brazilian Real (BRL USD) Plunges to Record Low as Rate Cut Seen - Bloomberg-3.4%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 24, 2018Most FOMC participants say they may raise rates ‘soon’, minutes show - Central Banking-2.0%
• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+1.1%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-1.2%
• Nov 17, 2016Mexican peso briefly falls 1 percent vs. US dollar after central bank hikes rates+3.0%
• Sep 21, 2023Stocks fall, yields rise as central banks rattle markets-0.2%