Brazil's real down 2% as central bank strikes cautious note; Stocks reverse course

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+0.4%
• Mar 18, 2026Brazil central bank kicks off easing with cautious 25-bp cut after oil shock | MarketScreener+1.2%
• Aug 30, 2024Brazil Real Swings on Fiscal Woes, Central Bank Interventions-0.8%
• Jan 21, 2021Brazilian real drops as fiscal worries overshadow central bank optimism | Financial Post+1.5%
• Mar 9, 2020Brazil stocks post biggest fall since 1998, central bank intervenes twice in FX+2.7%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 20, 2024Dollar strengthens versus yen as BOJ strikes cautious stance on rate hikes | Reuters-0.2%
• Nov 25, 2021Asian stocks fall on dollar strength, Bank of Korea hikes rates | Reuters-0.2%
• Dec 16, 2022U.S. dollar gains as risk tolerance drops with hawkish central banks | Reuters-0.3%
• Sep 21, 2023Stocks fall, yields rise as central banks rattle markets+1.7%
• Dec 15, 2022Oil prices slid 2% as dollar firms and central banks hike interest rates+0.4%