Most FOMC participants say they may raise rates ‘soon’, minutes show

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Dec 30, 2025Breaking: FOMC Minutes showed most officials judged further rate cuts would be appropriate+0.2%
• Jun 7, 2022Australia's central bank raises rates by 50 basis points+2.4%
• Aug 22, 2018FOMC minutes: More hikes coming soon; trade a worry | Reuters-0.5%
• Feb 21, 2024Fed worried about cutting rates too soon, minutes of January meeting show-0.0%
• Jun 28, 2024China’s central bank puts the yuan’s exchange-rate swings in crosshairs | South China Morning Post-0.7%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters-7.9%
• Sep 21, 2023Stocks fall, yields rise as central banks rattle markets-0.2%
• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+1.1%
• Nov 14, 2016Mexico central bank seen hiking after peso's Trump tumble-3.6%
• Nov 17, 2016Mexican peso briefly falls 1 percent vs. US dollar after central bank hikes rates+3.0%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+2.7%
• Sep 21, 2023Stocks fall, yields rise as central banks rattle markets-1.3%
• Aug 30, 2018Macroscope | China’s yuan sinks, but neither its central bank nor investors are showing signs of panic | South China Morning Post+0.4%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+7.6%
• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday-2.2%