
The yuan has depreciated more than 8 percent against the dollar since the second quarter of 2018, with the decline accelerating in June. Former PBOC adviser Yu Yongding argues the PBOC has not intervened as heavily as in 2015-17, signaling commitment to exchange rate reform.
Sustained yuan weakness raises the cost of US feed imports for China and can dampen Chinese buying of soybeans and meal, a bearish factor for dollar-priced feed.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.