China Allows Yuan to Drop as Outflows, Dollar Test Central Bank’s Grip

After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Apr 20, 2022Chinese Yuan Extends Drop to Six-Month Low as U.S. Yields Rise - Caixin Global+2.5%
• May 31, 2022In Depth: Behind the Yuan’s Tumble Against the Dollar - Caixin Global-0.7%
• May 18, 2019Onshore Yuan Breaks 6.9 Against U.S. Dollar as Trade War Intensifies - Caixin Global-0.3%
• Jun 27, 2024China's Yuan Hits Seven-Month Low As Dollar Outflows Persist - Finimize+0.0%
• Nov 1, 2018China’s Yuan Drops to a Decade-Low, 7 Per Dollar Now in Sight-0.8%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 18, 2019Onshore Yuan Breaks 6.9 Against U.S. Dollar as Trade War Intensifies - Caixin Global+1.0%
• Jul 9, 2024China’s central bank is stuck in a policy dilemma-8.2%
• Sep 29, 2022CNY/USD: Why China’s Yuan Hit Record Lows Against the Dollar - Bloomberg-2.8%
• Apr 21, 2022China's yuan slides to 6-month low as tightening prospects help dollar | Financial Post-1.2%
• May 29, 2024Chinese yuan falls to six-month low on dollar strength - Nikkei Asia-4.1%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• May 31, 2022In Depth: Behind the Yuan’s Tumble Against the Dollar - Caixin Global-5.5%
• Sep 25, 2018Argentina's central bank boss Luis Caputo quits after three months+1.9%
• May 9, 2022Chinese Yuan Slips To An 18-Month Low - Asia Financial News-4.2%
• Feb 12, 2020Brazilian real's new low vs dollar brings year-to-date loss to almost 8% By Reuters+0.8%
• Sep 28, 2018US-China trade war may push yuan 10 percent lower: Economist Andy Xie+0.1%