◂ Event Timeline

May 24, 2023MACROBrazil

Lula’s Feud with Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rates Dilemma to Global Stage

Brazilian President Lula has publicly attacked central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto, who has kept benchmark rates at 13.75% after a dozen hikes. Household debt is at a record and corporate bankruptcies are rising as the economy weakens.

WHY IT MATTERS

The dispute over monetary policy is a macro factor for the real and Brazilian domestic demand, with limited direct effect on feed commodity prices.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
bloomberglinea.comMartha Viotti Beck, Felipe Saturnino, Maria Eloisa CapurroMay 24, 2023

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.2%5d +3.1%20d -3.6%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Jun 14, 2022Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank+0.7%
Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+0.4%
Jan 24, 2023Lula’s Jab at Central Bank Puts Traders on Edge Across Brazil - Bloomberg-1.7%
Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-1.8%
Apr 12, 2017Brazilian central bank likely to cut key rate by 100 bps, says Commerzbank | EconoTimes-1.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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