◂ Event Timeline

Jan 24, 2023MACROBrazil

Lula’s Jab at Central Bank Puts Traders on Edge Across Brazil

Bloomberg reports that Lula questioned the need for an autonomous central bank in a national TV interview, unsettling traders across Brazil. The article focuses on the political pressure on the central bank's independence.

WHY IT MATTERS

Concerns over central bank credibility can weaken the real, which makes Brazilian agricultural exports more competitive and can pressure dollar-denominated feed prices.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
bloomberg.comVinicius AndradeJan 24, 2023

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.9%5d -1.7%20d -0.4%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

May 24, 2023Lula’s Feud with Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rates Dilemma to Global Stage+3.1%
Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+4.1%
Jun 14, 2022Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank+0.7%
Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+0.4%
Aug 30, 2024Brazil Real Swings on Fiscal Woes, Central Bank Interventions-0.8%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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