Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2020Brazil's central bank intervenes twice in the week in support of the weakening Real — MercoPress-5.2%
• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+4.1%
• Aug 30, 2024Brazil Real Swings on Fiscal Woes, Central Bank Interventions-0.8%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+1.1%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank FX, bond intervention fails to prevent market rout+1.1%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+11.3%
• Nov 11, 2024Brazil's currency weakens amid government delays in announcing new fiscal measures | Reuters-1.9%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank+3.2%
• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings+1.7%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+1.1%
• Nov 11, 2024Brazil's currency weakens amid government delays in announcing new fiscal measures | Reuters-1.2%
• May 14, 2020The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the First Quarter - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK-0.0%
• Nov 26, 2019EMERGING MARKETS-Brazilian c.bank intervenes as real slumps; Colombian peso drops on tax reform+0.9%
• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters-7.9%