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The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury did not intervene in foreign exchange markets during January–March 2020, according to the New York Fed's quarterly report to Congress. The broad trade-weighted dollar appreciated 7.1% in the quarter, its largest gain since Q4 1997, driven by safe-haven flows amid the coronavirus shock.
A stronger dollar makes US commodity exports more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to weigh on dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices, while emerging-market currencies weakening raises the local cost of imports.
newyorkfed.orgMay 14, 2020After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
