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The USDA April WASDE was largely discounted by the market due to COVID-19 demand swings. OPEC and Russia agreed to cut oil output by about 10 million barrels per day, and oil fell nearly 8% on the day.
POET idled four ethanol plants, removing roughly 110 million bushels of annual corn demand.
Lower oil demand and ethanol plant idling reduce corn demand, which is bearish for corn and bearish for crude; the oil cut is an offset for crude prices.
realagriculture.comBrennan TurnerApr 10, 2020After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
