
Grains traded lower in the last week of February 2020 as coronavirus concerns spread to South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy. Wheat, corn and soybeans posted new lows for the year, and US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow down 9.6% from its February high.
Wheat exchanges traded to December 2019 lows.
Coronavirus-driven risk aversion is pushing grain prices to yearly lows, reducing feed costs but adding volatility as markets weigh the economic impact.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.