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Commodity futures fell after COVID-19 shutdowns in the US cut demand from schools, restaurants, bars, and gasoline and ethanol use. Concerns grew that China would not meet the Phase 1 trade deal's purchase commitment of more than $40 billion in US farm products over 2020-2021, and the deal's act-of-God clause was raised as a possible escape.
Weaker domestic demand for ethanol and feed plus doubts about Chinese purchases pressure corn, soybean and livestock prices lower.
fb.orgJohn Newton, Ph.D.Apr 7, 2020After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 37 past bearish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
