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The American Farm Bureau analysis says COVID-19 stay-at-home measures are slowing the economy and shifting spending away from restaurants. The boxed beef cutout jumped 25% in a week as panic buying hit retail demand.
Beef's high price and reliance on food service make it vulnerable to recession-driven demand loss, which pressures cattle prices even as boxed beef spikes.
fb.orgMichael NepveuxMar 31, 2020After 37 past bearish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 27 past bearish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.4%), and 0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
