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Cattle markets were pressured by the Tyson plant fire and the USDA crop report, with limit-down moves in some fed and feeder contracts. Analysts also cite trade disputes with China, unratified trade deals, and signs of a possible recession.
Chinese buying toward the end of the week gave some support.
Macro uncertainty, weaker manufacturing and consumer demand, and trade frictions reduce demand for beef and feed grains, adding downside pressure on cattle prices beyond the plant outage.
u.osu.eduSmith atAug 21, 2019After 37 past bearish macro events, LCATTLE moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 27 past bearish macro events, FCATTLE moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.4%), and 0.0% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
