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An extension economist outlines the main cattle market forces for 2018: beef production is rising about 4 percent this year, with slowing herd expansion expected in 2018 and 2019. Strong domestic and export beef demand is providing price support.
Large beef supplies are the main headwind on cattle prices, while robust demand cushions the decline; feeder buyers should expect pressure into fall calf sales.
u.osu.eduSmith atAug 22, 2018After 37 past bearish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 27 past bearish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.4%), and 0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
