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Standard Chartered's chief economist Marios Maratheftis named the Turkish lira, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real and Malaysian ringgit as the emerging-market currencies most vulnerable to a Fed shock. He said a June hike is priced in and expects three hikes this year alongside balance sheet reduction.
Currency weakness in Brazil and Malaysia could alter export pricing for soy and palm oil, while a faster Fed path tightens financial conditions for commodity buyers.
cnbc.comDavid ReidMay 25, 2017After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 86 past neutral macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
