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Argentina's peso has fallen 23% against the dollar this year, and the central bank raised rates to 40% to combat capital flight. The Brazilian real is down 15% and the Russian rouble 10% since January, while grain prices have so far shown little reaction.
Sharp currency falls in major exporters can boost their export competitiveness and pressure global prices over time, though day-to-day correlation with US grain prices has been weak.
cmegroup.comMay 31, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
