Soybeans edged higher overnight after heavy pressure Monday, while December soybean meal rose $1.40 and soybean oil lost 35 points. The Brazilian real steadied after its steepest one-day plunge since 1999 following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's presidential runoff victory.
The sharp real move affects Brazilian export competitiveness and farmer selling of soybeans, which can shift global oilseed and meal prices.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the steepest one-day real plunge since 1999 following the runoff, then stabilization.
Describes the steepest one-day real plunge since 1999 and its stabilization afterward.