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CME Group analysis examines the relationship between soybean oil and meal prices, noting oil has averaged about 2.3 times the price of meal per pound over 20 years. It finds Chinese economic growth tends to lift soy oil but has a weak or negative link to soy meal.
The analysis suggests Chinese demand shifts affect soy oil more than meal, so meal prices may stay driven by other factors such as crush margins and South American supply.
cmegroup.comCME GroupJul 1, 2019After 456 past macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 75 past macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -2.7% to +1.7%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
