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DTN reports that the Brazilian real roughly doubled its daily chart range and fell sharply on May 17, 2017, after fresh news tied President Temer to alleged bribes linked to a JBS executive's testimony. The move was not caused by pension reform or central bank rate expectations.
The currency shock makes Brazilian soybean exports more competitive, which is bearish for U.S. soybean and corn prices and adds uncertainty for buyers.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanMay 18, 2017After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Identifies the scandal tied to the JBS executive's testimony, rather than rates or reform, as the cause of the sharp real drop and widened range.
