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The Brazilian real lost about 5% against the US dollar in the month, making Brazilian soybeans cheaper in local terms and raising local premiums over CBOT futures. Talks to resolve the US-China trade dispute had again failed, which is boosting Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans.
A weaker real and stronger Chinese import demand for Brazilian beans support local soybean prices and encourage farmers to sell old crop and pre-sell the new crop.
zmp.deAug 8, 2019After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
