
US soybean prices paused their decline after the Trump administration unveiled a $1 trillion economic stimulus package. Soybean exports from the US and Brazil fell in March due to the pandemic, raising meal-trade bids, while Malaysian restrictions raised fears of lower palm oil output.
Lower South American export flows and palm oil supply fears support soymeal and soyoil prices, while stimulus provides only modest support to soybeans.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 38 past bullish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +3.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.