
Palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia rose to 3,924 ringgit per tonne, about $824, as crude oil climbed around 2.5% during the week. Malaysian palm oil product exports fell 11.8-14.3% in February 1-25 versus January, while Indonesia's 2024 production is forecast to rise 5%.
Crude oil gains lift vegetable oil prices through biofuel economics, but weak fundamentals such as higher output and lower exports cap the rally. Palm and soyoil prices may move with energy, though the supply pressure favors softer prices.
After 38 past bullish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +3.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.