
Argentine soy farmers are holding back more of their crop, with 46 percent sold versus 57 percent a year earlier. The hoarding is a response to consumer inflation of 64 percent in June and expected faster price rises.
Slower shipments of soy oil and soy meal are expected as a result.
Reduced farmer selling tightens near-term export supply of soy meal and oil, which supports world prices. Currency and inflation pressures in Argentina are the underlying cause.
After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.