An American AgCredit outlook says the May WASDE gave first 2026/27 projections, with uncertainty persisting around acreage and yields. WTI crude averaged $100 to $105 per barrel in early May, and USDA projects ethanol to use 35% of US corn and biofuels to take 54% of US soybean oil use.
Higher crude oil improves ethanol and biofuel economics, linking corn and soybean oil demand closely to energy prices heading into the new marketing year.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.