Stocks rise; yields, dollar lower as Fed signals rate cut

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2025Global stock index dips, dollar climbs as Fed's Powell holds off on Sept rate cut verdict-5.8%
• Oct 31, 2019Rupee rises 9 paise against US dollar after Fed rate cut - The Hindu+2.4%
• Aug 22, 2025Commodity Prices Surge As Powell Signals September Fed Rate Cut | FXEmpire+1.0%
• Oct 1, 2026Dollar flat as US-Iran stand-off lifts oil, yields-2.3%
• Oct 29, 2025Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Dollar and yields rally as Powell pushes back against December rate cut | Newsquawk+0.7%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2025Global stock index dips, dollar climbs as Fed's Powell holds off on Sept rate cut verdict-6.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Gold trims gain as Fed holds rates, signals hike support-2.3%
• Sep 28, 2026Rand weakens as oil prices rise and rate-hike fears support dollar+6.5%
• Jul 31, 2019Stocks sink after Fed dents hopes for multiple interest-rate cuts - Los Angeles Times-7.6%
• May 26, 2021Equities, dollar rise as Fed officials downplay inflation concerns+3.3%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2024Stocks surge while Treasury yields, dollars retreat after Fed signals lower rates | Reuters-0.1%
• Jul 31, 2024Dollar falls as Fed signals likely September rate cut-0.5%
• Dec 13, 2023Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cuts-1.0%
• Jun 20, 2019Fed rate-cut sign boosts stocks, dollar drops-1.1%
• Oct 30, 2019Dollar dips as Fed signals pause in rate-cutting cycle+0.1%

After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026The dollar continues to rise but is at its lowest level in 10 years · SondeAR-0.8%
• Sep 22, 2021Daily summary: Fed projects interest-rate hike next year | XTB+4.9%
• Mar 31, 2023Argentina's dollars drain fastest since 2019 as IMF decision looms | Kitco News+2.1%
• Mar 22, 2023Argentina drought saps dollar reserves, pressuring FX crawling peg-3.2%
• May 27, 2026Tight Stocks, Wide Ranges: 2026 Crop Price Scenarios - American AgCredit+2.2%