
The wholesale dollar in Argentina rose 1.4% over the month to 1,560 pesos, its highest nominal level on record. Analysts attribute the move to country risk above 750 basis points and the sharp fall of the Brazilian real, while the real exchange rate is near a decade low.
The blue dollar traded at 1,575 pesos.
A strong peso in real terms raises the cost of Argentine exports such as soymeal and soyoil, which can support global meal prices as Argentine supply becomes less competitive.
After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.