
Argentina's central bank sold about $1.9 billion in foreign currency in March, the fastest monthly pace since late 2019, to defend the crawling peg. The drain comes as the IMF board is expected to approve the fourth loan review that day.
Reserve depletion pushes Argentina to slow crop sales or ease FX rules, which can curb export availability of soymeal, soyoil and corn and support international prices.
After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.