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Rabobank analyst Owen Wagner said crude oil increasingly drives grain and oilseed markets through the link to biofuel feedstocks such as soybean oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia are cutting petroleum output, and Saudi Arabia reportedly needs about US$85 per barrel to balance its budget.
Crude oil sets a floor under soybean oil and other vegetable oil prices as biofuel diversion grows. Oil supply cuts by OPEC+ members support crude and therefore the ag complex.
producer.comSean PrattNov 2, 2023After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
