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Reuters commentary notes oil prices are rising sharply while recent G7 inflation reports came in softer than expected. It cites research that oil has a statistically significant effect on G7 inflation and that a 10 percent oil rise typically lifts domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage points short term.
Higher crude prices raise energy and fertilizer costs and can feed into biofuel economics, while the inflation outlook shapes central bank policy and the dollar.
financialpost.comReutersApr 30, 2018After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
