Oil Prices: What to Make of the Volatility

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2026Ringgit closes lower on volatile oil prices | The Star-10.8%
• Jul 26, 2023The increase in the price of oil led to an increase in the prices of gas and nitrogen fertilizers+2.1%
• Apr 30, 2018Will oil prices be the trigger that wakes the inflation beast? - Financial Post+2.4%
• Mar 8, 2022Specter of stagflation looms due to soaring oil prices, weakening won - The Korea Times-13.5%
• Dec 5, 2016The good oil on grain prices… - Grain Central-0.4%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 26, 2023The increase in the price of oil led to an increase in the prices of gas and nitrogen fertilizers+1.9%
• Apr 30, 2018Will oil prices be the trigger that wakes the inflation beast? - Financial Post-0.2%
• Dec 5, 2016The good oil on grain prices… - Grain Central-0.3%
• Feb 7, 2022Soaring oil prices, weakening won weigh on Korea's economy - The Korea Times+1.0%
• Jul 24, 2018Crude oil market gets whiplash, investors should expect more volatility+2.4%

After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.

• Sep 25, 2026What’s behind the latest surge in grain and oilseed prices?-2.3%
• Dec 5, 2016The good oil on grain prices… - Grain Central-1.9%
• Apr 28, 2022Why diesel prices are driving up the cost of everything-3.1%
• Jun 14, 2022Diesel prices: The loss of US refining capacity is making things worse - FreightWaves+1.9%
• Aug 26, 2018Why Diesel Prices Are Set To Soar+1.8%