
FreightWaves reports that lost US refining capacity and slow foreign response have pushed product prices up sharply relative to crude. The 3:2:1 crack spread for WTI has hovered just under $60 a barrel, far above pre-pandemic levels.
Wide product cracks mean diesel and gasoline stay expensive even if crude is steady, lifting trucking and farm operating costs.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.