
S&P Global Platts says the diesel market has not yet reacted to IMO 2020, and expects gasoil demand to rise as ships switch to marine gasoil in January. Platts estimates MGO demand could increase by up to 1 million barrels per day during the transition.
A possible 1 million b/d jump in marine gasoil demand could strain over-the-road diesel supply and lift diesel prices. This is a bullish forward risk for diesel costs.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.