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Economist Philip Verleger expects significant market turmoil as IMO 2020 takes effect, with diesel prices likely to rise first as distillates are diverted to marine gasoil and very low sulfur fuel oil. He expects governments may intervene to limit price increases.
A diesel price spike from IMO 2020 would raise freight and feed-delivery costs for buyers. The forecast is a single analyst's outlook and is not yet a confirmed price move.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonMar 18, 2019After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
