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Speakers at CERAWeek discussed IMO 2020, the upcoming cap on marine fuel sulfur at 0.5% from 3.5%. The IEA estimated non-compliance at about 700,000 barrels per day, and Maersk expects 85 to 90% compliance.
Shifts in distillate demand from marine fuel could tighten diesel supply and lift diesel prices ahead of 2020. This is a forward-looking estimate rather than an immediate price driver.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonMar 15, 2019After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
