
A FreightWaves commentary says the oil market is waiting for the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulfur cap, which takes effect January 1, 2020. Forecasters have published extensive analysis but few concrete price predictions for marine fuel.
Expected demand for low-sulfur compliant fuel is likely to lift diesel and marine fuel prices, raising shipping and trucking costs that flow into grain freight.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.