
A FreightWaves CEO column argues the IMO 2020 rule, cutting marine fuel sulfur from 3.5% to 0.5% from January 1, 2020, will strain small trucking carriers. It notes limited low-sulfur refining capacity will force refiners to choose between ULSD and marine fuel.
Competition for refinery capacity between ULSD and compliant marine fuel points to higher diesel prices and higher ocean freight costs for feed commodities.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.